Simulation scenario 8

Setting description

Taxel therapies less effective in the TP53+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

PFS distributions

Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype	var	Other	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
—	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
–+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
-+-	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 18.7, median = 15.3	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.48, hr = 2.6	af = 1, hr = 1
-++	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 18.7, median = 15.3	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.48, hr = 2.6	af = 1, hr = 1
+–	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+-+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
++-	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 18.7, median = 15.3	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.48, hr = 2.6	af = 1, hr = 1
+++	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 18.7, median = 15.3	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.48, hr = 2.6	af = 1, hr = 1

By signature:

signature	var	Other	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
all	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 24.8, median = 20.3	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.64, hr = 1.8	af = 1, hr = 1
TP53-	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.049, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 18.7, median = 15.3	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.48, hr = 2.6	af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 24.8, median = 20.3	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.64, hr = 1.8	af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+	param	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.3	scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
	summary	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 39, median = 31.9	mean = 24.8, median = 20.3	mean = 39, median = 31.9
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 0.64, hr = 1.8	af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power

graduation (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 59 0 64 TP53- 29 31 19 TP53+ 277 0 285 DRD+ 48 0 69 TEfus+ 76 1 73

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 0.118 0.000 0.128 TP53- 0.058 0.062 0.038 TP53+ 0.554 0.000 0.570 DRD+ 0.096 0.000 0.138 TEfus+ 0.152 0.002 0.146

futility (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 2 170 3 TP53- 163 151 181 TP53+ 11 371 6 DRD+ 26 119 44 TEfus+ 30 209 24

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 0.004 0.340 0.006 TP53- 0.326 0.302 0.362 TP53+ 0.022 0.742 0.012 DRD+ 0.052 0.238 0.088 TEfus+ 0.060 0.418 0.048

max sample size (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 0 0 0 TP53- 77 66 62 TP53+ 32 0 22 DRD+ 0 0 0 TEfus+ 0 0 0

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib all 0.000 0.000 0.000 TP53- 0.154 0.132 0.124 TP53+ 0.064 0.000 0.044 DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000 TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000

Errors & power

The overall error was 0.846.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.628             0.062             0.654 

The overall power was .
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

NULL

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:

signature	var	Control	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
all	graduation	0	59	0	64
	futility	0	2	170	3
	max_n	0	0	0	0
	n	698 (568, 775)	365 (181, 530)	239 (105, 356)	331 (177, 524)
	n_unique	698 (568, 775)	365 (181, 530)	239 (105, 356)	331 (177, 524)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (46, 60)	60 (21, 60)	60 (46, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	36 (16, 51)	28 (9, 52)	31 (17, 54)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.94 (0.61, 1)	0.16 (0, 0.68)	0.94 (0.6, 1)
	rate	0.024 (0.023, 0.026)	0.021 (0.019, 0.024)	0.028 (0.024, 0.035)	0.021 (0.02, 0.024)
TP53-	graduation	0	29	31	19
	futility	0	163	151	181
	max_n	0	77	66	62
	n	390 (317, 431)	177 (62, 302)	186 (56, 302)	164 (58, 300)
	n_unique	390 (317, 431)	177 (62, 302)	186 (56, 302)	164 (58, 300)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (21, 60)	60 (22, 60)	60 (20, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	29 (16, 50)	28 (18, 53)	29 (16, 48)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.47 (0.08, 0.9)	0.52 (0.1, 0.9)	0.5 (0.07, 0.89)
	rate	0.021 (0.019, 0.023)	0.022 (0.019, 0.026)	0.021 (0.019, 0.026)	0.022 (0.019, 0.026)
TP53+	graduation	0	277	0	285
	futility	0	11	371	6
	max_n	0	32	0	22
	n	322 (200, 365)	181 (68, 288)	52 (37, 73)	170 (69, 280)
	n_unique	322 (200, 365)	181 (68, 288)	52 (37, 73)	170 (69, 280)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	54 (22, 60)	35 (19, 60)	52 (23, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	35 (20, 55)	30 (18, 48)	35 (20, 55)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.99 (0.89, 1)	0 (0, 0.01)	0.99 (0.9, 1)
	rate	0.029 (0.026, 0.032)	0.021 (0.019, 0.024)	0.053 (0.046, 0.063)	0.021 (0.019, 0.024)
DRD+	graduation	0	48	0	69
	futility	0	26	119	44
	max_n	0	0	0	0
	n	192 (142, 224)	86 (39, 142)	55 (22, 98)	105 (58, 160)
	n_unique	192 (142, 224)	86 (39, 142)	55 (22, 98)	105 (58, 160)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (47, 60)	60 (42, 60)	60 (33, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	42 (28, 57)	43 (32, 56)	34 (19, 55)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.78 (0.32, 0.97)	0.27 (0.02, 0.75)	0.79 (0.31, 0.98)
	rate	0.024 (0.021, 0.028)	0.021 (0.017, 0.025)	0.028 (0.022, 0.038)	0.022 (0.019, 0.026)
TEfus+	graduation	0	76	1	73
	futility	0	30	209	24
	max_n	0	0	0	0
	n	252 (189, 292)	124 (55, 199)	70 (36, 127)	128 (59, 203)
	n_unique	252 (189, 292)	124 (55, 199)	70 (36, 127)	128 (59, 203)
	time_trial	60 (60, 60)	60 (37, 60)	60 (26, 60)	60 (36, 60)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	38 (22, 58)	34 (21, 54)	35 (19, 55)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.88 (0.41, 0.99)	0.16 (0.01, 0.7)	0.9 (0.44, 0.99)
	rate	0.025 (0.023, 0.028)	0.021 (0.018, 0.025)	0.03 (0.024, 0.04)	0.021 (0.019, 0.026)

By subgroup combinations:

subtype	var	Control	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
—	graduation	0	232	224	246
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	75	66	59
	n	216 (171, 249)	96 (32, 193)	92 (23, 192)	73 (19, 175)
	n_unique	216 (171, 249)	96 (32, 193)	92 (23, 192)	73 (19, 175)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.46 (0.1, 0.88)	0.46 (0.11, 0.88)	0.44 (0.09, 0.88)
	rate	0.021 (0.019, 0.024)	0.022 (0.018, 0.029)	0.022 (0.018, 0.029)	0.022 (0.018, 0.03)
–+	graduation	0	277	319	293
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	69	63	57
	n	61 (39, 77)	22 (8, 58)	24 (9, 62)	22 (6, 55)
	n_unique	61 (39, 77)	22 (8, 58)	24 (9, 62)	22 (6, 55)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.48 (0.14, 0.87)	0.53 (0.13, 0.91)	0.47 (0.12, 0.86)
	rate	0.021 (0.017, 0.026)	0.022 (0.016, 0.034)	0.022 (0.015, 0.033)	0.022 (0.015, 0.037)
-+-	graduation	0	300	455	310
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	32	0	22
	n	137 (87, 162)	80 (29, 138)	20 (12, 34)	60 (18, 126)
	n_unique	137 (87, 162)	80 (29, 138)	20 (12, 34)	60 (18, 126)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.94 (0.63, 1)	0.01 (0, 0.1)	0.93 (0.54, 1)
	rate	0.029 (0.025, 0.034)	0.021 (0.018, 0.027)	0.054 (0.044, 0.072)	0.021 (0.016, 0.027)
-++	graduation	0	335	472	339
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	30	0	22
	n	98 (57, 119)	53 (18, 99)	17 (10, 29)	44 (16, 96)
	n_unique	98 (57, 119)	53 (18, 99)	17 (10, 29)	44 (16, 96)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.9 (0.5, 1)	0.02 (0, 0.18)	0.91 (0.51, 1)
	rate	0.029 (0.024, 0.035)	0.022 (0.017, 0.029)	0.054 (0.043, 0.076)	0.021 (0.017, 0.028)
+–	graduation	0	268	282	288
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	70	64	58
	n	55 (39, 70)	21 (6, 47)	20 (4, 46)	26 (10, 53)
	n_unique	55 (39, 70)	21 (6, 47)	20 (4, 46)	26 (10, 53)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.5 (0.16, 0.89)	0.51 (0.14, 0.86)	0.52 (0.11, 0.88)
	rate	0.021 (0.016, 0.027)	0.021 (0.014, 0.036)	0.022 (0.014, 0.038)	0.022 (0.016, 0.033)
+-+	graduation	0	304	353	324
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	65	61	56
	n	54 (34, 68)	20 (5, 46)	17 (4, 45)	23 (11, 52)
	n_unique	54 (34, 68)	20 (5, 46)	17 (4, 45)	23 (11, 52)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.46 (0.11, 0.84)	0.49 (0.12, 0.84)	0.47 (0.14, 0.87)
	rate	0.021 (0.017, 0.027)	0.022 (0.015, 0.036)	0.022 (0.014, 0.04)	0.023 (0.016, 0.033)
++-	graduation	0	324	462	345
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	32	0	21
	n	41 (25, 54)	18 (5, 39)	6 (2, 13)	23 (10, 44)
	n_unique	41 (25, 54)	18 (5, 39)	6 (2, 13)	23 (10, 44)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.79 (0.33, 0.97)	0.15 (0.03, 0.42)	0.84 (0.37, 0.98)
	rate	0.029 (0.022, 0.038)	0.021 (0.013, 0.036)	0.057 (0.036, 0.103)	0.022 (0.016, 0.032)
+++	graduation	0	353	477	365
	futility	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	30	0	21
	n	40 (22, 53)	18 (5, 38)	6 (2, 14)	23 (10, 44)
	n_unique	40 (22, 53)	18 (5, 38)	6 (2, 14)	23 (10, 44)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.77 (0.34, 0.97)	0.15 (0.03, 0.41)	0.82 (0.38, 0.98)
	rate	0.029 (0.022, 0.038)	0.021 (0.014, 0.034)	0.056 (0.036, 0.123)	0.022 (0.015, 0.032)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:

signature	var	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
all	count	59		64
	time_stop	36 (16, 51)		32 (17, 54)
	n_trt	244 (119, 451)		224 (113, 426)
	n_control	411 (182, 617)		375 (176, 653)
	post_p	1 (0.96, 1)		0.99 (0.94, 1)
	order	2 (1, 4)		2 (1, 4)
TP53-	count	29	31	19
	time_stop	30 (16, 47)	24 (16, 54)	37 (18, 54)
	n_trt	106 (63, 173)	108 (67, 245)	113 (68, 272)
	n_control	181 (96, 295)	147 (99, 335)	273 (133, 382)
	post_p	0.96 (0.89, 0.99)	0.96 (0.89, 0.99)	0.98 (0.95, 1)
	order	2 (1, 4)	1 (1, 4)	3 (1, 4.2)
TP53+	count	277		285
	time_stop	37 (20, 55)		35 (20, 55)
	n_trt	132 (64, 244)		126 (65, 227)
	n_control	195 (99, 317)		185 (105, 297)
	post_p	0.99 (0.93, 1)		0.99 (0.96, 1)
	order	2 (1, 3)		1 (1, 3)
DRD+	count	48		69
	time_stop	44 (28, 57)		41 (20, 57)
	n_trt	72 (53, 123)		95 (56, 146)
	n_control	139 (93, 183)		125 (64, 186)
	post_p	0.98 (0.94, 1)		0.98 (0.94, 1)
	order	2.5 (2, 4.3)		3 (1, 4)
TEfus+	count	76	1	73
	time_stop	40 (22, 59)	22 (22, 22)	36 (19, 56)
	n_trt	92 (55, 188)	57 (57, 57)	88 (57, 166)
	n_control	172 (94, 260)	79 (79, 79)	159 (74, 243)
	post_p	0.98 (0.94, 1)	0.99 (0.99, 0.99)	0.98 (0.93, 1)
	order	3 (1, 5)	2 (2, 2)	2 (1, 5)

Futility:

signature	var	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Niraparib
all	count	2	170	3
	time_stop	32 (29, 35)	28 (9, 52)	20 (12, 22)
	n_trt	189 (147, 231)	133 (63, 237)	100 (65, 117)
	n_control	368 (338, 398)	325 (94, 605)	241 (131, 273)
	post_p	0.11 (0.06, 0.16)	0.02 (0, 0.12)	0.08 (0.04, 0.14)
	order	4.5 (4.1, 4.9)	2 (1, 4.1)	2 (1.2, 2)
TP53-	count	163	151	181
	time_stop	29 (16, 50)	28 (18, 53)	29 (16, 47)
	n_trt	89 (52, 189)	94 (57, 194)	83 (51, 204)
	n_control	182 (95, 337)	175 (104, 341)	182 (90, 317)
	post_p	0.14 (0.05, 0.26)	0.15 (0.05, 0.26)	0.13 (0.04, 0.24)
	order	2 (1, 4)	3 (1, 5)	2 (1, 4)
TP53+	count	11	371	6
	time_stop	23 (17, 34)	30 (18, 48)	26 (19, 48)
	n_trt	70 (55, 81)	54 (50, 75)	70 (51, 108)
	n_control	116 (92, 194)	158 (87, 276)	139 (94, 263)
	post_p	0.2 (0.1, 0.26)	0.01 (0, 0.14)	0.11 (0.05, 0.26)
	order	1 (1, 3)	1 (1, 3)	1.5 (1, 4)
DRD+	count	26	119	44
	time_stop	40 (29, 56)	43 (32, 56)	28 (19, 48)
	n_trt	61 (50, 114)	58 (50, 89)	63 (54, 100)
	n_control	126 (91, 185)	143 (101, 188)	92 (54, 147)
	post_p	0.15 (0.07, 0.28)	0.13 (0.02, 0.27)	0.14 (0.05, 0.26)
	order	3 (2, 6)	3 (2, 5)	3 (1, 4.7)
TEfus+	count	30	209	24
	time_stop	33 (23, 48)	34 (21, 54)	32 (19, 48)
	n_trt	68 (50, 116)	61 (50, 96)	58 (50, 128)
	n_control	142 (91, 193)	142 (86, 226)	138 (73, 216)
	post_p	0.13 (0.04, 0.29)	0.08 (0.01, 0.24)	0.14 (0.05, 0.26)
	order	3 (1, 4.1)	3 (1, 5)	2 (1, 5)

By subgroup combinations

Graduation:

signature	treatment	var	—	–+	-+-	-++	+–	+-+	++-	+++
all	Hormone_therapies	count	59	59	59	59	59	59	59	59
		time	36 (16, 51)	36 (16, 51)	36 (16, 51)	36 (16, 51)	36 (16, 51)	36 (16, 51)	36 (16, 51)	36 (16, 51)
		n	83 (36, 165)	20 (9, 42)	49 (20, 88)	27 (11, 62)	17 (7, 35)	13 (6, 32)	8 (4, 26)	11 (2, 28)
		post_p	0.7 (0.57, 0.91)	0.66 (0.56, 0.86)	0.94 (0.61, 0.99)	0.8 (0.63, 0.98)	0.63 (0.56, 0.84)	0.63 (0.56, 0.86)	0.7 (0.57, 0.86)	0.74 (0.56, 0.93)
		r_prob	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.19 (0.19, 0.19)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.017 (0.012, 0.021)	0.013 (0, 0.022)	0.016 (0.009, 0.022)	0.017 (0.004, 0.024)	0.012 (0, 0.019)	0.012 (0, 0.019)	0.015 (0, 0.023)	0.012 (0, 0.024)
	Niraparib	count	64	64	64	64	64	64	64	64
		time	32 (17, 54)	32 (17, 54)	32 (17, 54)	32 (17, 54)	32 (17, 54)	32 (17, 54)	32 (17, 54)	32 (17, 54)
		n	56 (14, 139)	14 (6, 46)	36 (13, 96)	28 (10, 68)	18 (10, 39)	20 (9, 38)	17 (8, 29)	16 (8, 32)
		post_p	0.7 (0.59, 0.89)	0.63 (0.56, 0.78)	0.87 (0.63, 0.99)	0.79 (0.59, 0.98)	0.69 (0.57, 0.89)	0.67 (0.56, 0.86)	0.77 (0.59, 0.96)	0.8 (0.6, 0.96)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate	0.015 (0, 0.019)	0.013 (0, 0.022)	0.017 (0, 0.023)	0.018 (0.005, 0.025)	0.015 (0.006, 0.023)	0.016 (0.003, 0.021)	0.017 (0.007, 0.025)	0.015 (0, 0.024)
TP53-	Hormone_therapies	count	29	29			29	29
		time	30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)			30 (16, 47)	30 (16, 47)
		n	64 (39, 104)	16 (9, 32)			10 (4, 25)	9 (4, 22)
		post_p	0.81 (0.74, 0.92)	0.74 (0.63, 0.86)			0.72 (0.61, 0.85)	0.72 (0.61, 0.84)
		r_prob	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.19 (0.19, 0.19)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.014 (0.008, 0.019)	0.011 (0, 0.018)			0.006 (0, 0.016)	0.009 (0, 0.016)
	Taxel_therapies	count	31	31			31	31
		time	24 (16, 54)	24 (16, 54)			24 (16, 54)	24 (16, 54)
		n	57 (36, 119)	19 (10, 39)			14 (6, 33)	13 (4, 45)
		post_p	0.77 (0.71, 0.96)	0.74 (0.7, 0.91)			0.73 (0.6, 0.86)	0.76 (0.63, 0.88)
		r_prob	0.25 (0.25, 0.25)	0.38 (0.38, 0.38)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.015 (0.007, 0.02)	0.014 (0.005, 0.019)			0.005 (0, 0.019)	0.006 (0, 0.016)
	Niraparib	count	19	19			19	19
		time	37 (18, 54)	37 (18, 54)			37 (18, 54)	37 (18, 54)
		n	56 (27, 146)	17 (9, 47)			20 (14, 47)	28 (13, 45)
		post_p	0.8 (0.73, 0.94)	0.78 (0.66, 0.89)			0.81 (0.7, 0.93)	0.74 (0.7, 0.92)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate	0.016 (0.004, 0.019)	0.011 (0, 0.018)			0.012 (0.003, 0.019)	0.012 (0, 0.02)
TP53+	Hormone_therapies	count			277	277			277	277
		time			37 (20, 55)	37 (20, 55)			37 (20, 55)	37 (20, 55)
		n			61 (27, 112)	43 (20, 85)			15 (4, 32)	15 (5, 31)
		post_p			0.89 (0.72, 0.99)	0.85 (0.71, 0.99)			0.75 (0.62, 0.94)	0.74 (0.62, 0.93)
		r_prob			0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.018 (0.01, 0.024)	0.017 (0.008, 0.023)			0.013 (0, 0.022)	0.013 (0, 0.022)
	Niraparib	count			285	285			285	285
		time			35 (20, 55)	35 (20, 55)			35 (20, 55)	35 (20, 55)
		n			48 (18, 102)	34 (16, 73)			20 (9, 38)	19 (10, 37)
		post_p			0.85 (0.72, 0.98)	0.82 (0.71, 0.98)			0.8 (0.7, 0.96)	0.79 (0.7, 0.95)
		r_prob			0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate			0.016 (0.008, 0.023)	0.017 (0.009, 0.023)			0.017 (0.007, 0.025)	0.017 (0.008, 0.024)
DRD+	Hormone_therapies	count					48	48	48	48
		time					44 (28, 57)	44 (28, 57)	44 (28, 57)	44 (28, 57)
		n					24 (9, 40)	20 (8, 40)	16 (5, 32)	16 (6, 36)
		post_p					0.79 (0.69, 0.92)	0.73 (0.63, 0.89)	0.83 (0.72, 0.95)	0.81 (0.67, 0.97)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.012 (0.006, 0.017)	0.015 (0.006, 0.02)	0.014 (0.003, 0.022)	0.014 (0.006, 0.024)
	Niraparib	count					69	69	69	69
		time					41 (20, 57)	41 (20, 57)	41 (20, 57)	41 (20, 57)
		n					24 (12, 47)	24 (13, 47)	21 (9, 37)	20 (8, 38)
		post_p					0.75 (0.7, 0.9)	0.78 (0.71, 0.95)	0.81 (0.71, 0.96)	0.84 (0.71, 0.97)
		r_prob					0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate					0.016 (0.005, 0.023)	0.015 (0.004, 0.02)	0.018 (0.006, 0.025)	0.017 (0.007, 0.024)
TEfus+	Hormone_therapies	count		76		76		76		76
		time		40 (22, 59)		40 (22, 59)		40 (22, 59)		40 (22, 59)
		n		23 (10, 50)		38 (18, 85)		17 (7, 38)		14 (5, 33)
		post_p		0.76 (0.68, 0.92)		0.9 (0.73, 0.99)		0.74 (0.62, 0.88)		0.78 (0.63, 0.94)
		r_prob		0.19 (0.19, 0.19)		0.12 (0.12, 0.12)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.014 (0.006, 0.018)		0.017 (0.008, 0.024)		0.012 (0, 0.019)		0.015 (0, 0.024)
	Taxel_therapies	count		1		1		1		1
		time		22 (22, 22)		22 (22, 22)		22 (22, 22)		22 (22, 22)
		n		11 (11, 11)		27 (27, 27)		9 (9, 9)		10 (10, 10)
		post_p		0.78 (0.78, 0.78)		0.98 (0.98, 0.98)		0.69 (0.69, 0.69)		0.61 (0.61, 0.61)
		r_prob		0.38 (0.38, 0.38)		0.41 (0.41, 0.41)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0 (0, 0)		0.009 (0.009, 0.009)		0 (0, 0)		0.016 (0.016, 0.016)
	Niraparib	count		73		73		73		73
		time		36 (19, 56)		36 (19, 56)		36 (19, 56)		36 (19, 56)
		n		19 (7, 45)		28 (13, 68)		22 (12, 41)		18 (9, 33)
		post_p		0.75 (0.63, 0.92)		0.85 (0.71, 0.99)		0.74 (0.7, 0.86)		0.82 (0.71, 0.96)
		r_prob		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.5 (0.5, 0.5)		0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate		0.012 (0, 0.019)		0.016 (0.006, 0.024)		0.013 (0.004, 0.021)		0.016 (0.007, 0.023)

Futility:

signature	treatment	var	—	–+	-+-	-++	+–	+-+	++-	+++
all	Hormone_therapies	count	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
		time	32 (29, 35)	32 (29, 35)	32 (29, 35)	32 (29, 35)	32 (29, 35)	32 (29, 35)	32 (29, 35)	32 (29, 35)
		n	62 (36, 88)	21 (21, 21)	47 (45, 49)	8 (7, 8)	24 (12, 35)	5 (3, 7)	10 (9, 12)	12 (9, 16)
		post_p	0.4 (0.34, 0.47)	0.24 (0.23, 0.25)	0.49 (0.48, 0.5)	0.3 (0.21, 0.4)	0.33 (0.2, 0.45)	0.27 (0.21, 0.33)	0.32 (0.24, 0.4)	0.32 (0.24, 0.39)
		r_prob	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.19 (0.19, 0.19)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.019 (0.019, 0.02)	0.027 (0.024, 0.029)	0.026 (0.021, 0.031)	0.035 (0.031, 0.039)	0.026 (0.019, 0.034)	0.043 (0.034, 0.052)	0.027 (0.019, 0.036)	0.036 (0.025, 0.046)
	Taxel_therapies	count	170	170	170	170	170	170	170	170
		time	28 (9, 52)	28 (9, 52)	28 (9, 52)	28 (9, 52)	28 (9, 52)	28 (9, 52)	28 (9, 52)	28 (9, 52)
		n	42 (15, 106)	16 (6, 35)	18 (12, 33)	14 (9, 26)	8 (2, 23)	9 (2, 25)	5 (1, 12)	5 (1, 10)
		post_p	0.35 (0.13, 0.48)	0.36 (0.16, 0.48)	0.09 (0, 0.36)	0.1 (0.01, 0.36)	0.39 (0.2, 0.48)	0.37 (0.18, 0.48)	0.25 (0.07, 0.46)	0.26 (0.05, 0.45)
		r_prob	0.25 (0.25, 0.25)	0.38 (0.38, 0.38)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.022 (0.015, 0.031)	0.023 (0.015, 0.047)	0.048 (0.031, 0.071)	0.048 (0.032, 0.082)	0.023 (0, 0.046)	0.024 (0, 0.057)	0.051 (0.022, 0.103)	0.05 (0.022, 0.136)
	Niraparib	count	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
		time	20 (12, 22)	20 (12, 22)	20 (12, 22)	20 (12, 22)	20 (12, 22)	20 (12, 22)	20 (12, 22)	20 (12, 22)
		n	19 (9, 29)	3 (3, 9)	12 (9, 19)	16 (5, 18)	8 (7, 10)	12 (12, 15)	6 (6, 9)	11 (11, 17)
		post_p	0.34 (0.25, 0.39)	0.39 (0.23, 0.4)	0.3 (0.24, 0.39)	0.35 (0.33, 0.35)	0.42 (0.39, 0.47)	0.35 (0.22, 0.37)	0.46 (0.45, 0.47)	0.44 (0.41, 0.47)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate	0.018 (0.015, 0.049)	0.03 (0.006, 0.032)	0.036 (0.033, 0.042)	0.027 (0.023, 0.085)	0.021 (0.016, 0.023)	0.016 (0.015, 0.027)	0.032 (0.006, 0.032)	0.019 (0.018, 0.027)
TP53-	Hormone_therapies	count	163	163			163	163
		time	29 (16, 50)	29 (16, 50)			29 (16, 50)	29 (16, 50)
		n	48 (26, 116)	14 (5, 35)			11 (4, 32)	10 (4, 30)
		post_p	0.3 (0.09, 0.47)	0.35 (0.15, 0.48)			0.36 (0.19, 0.48)	0.37 (0.2, 0.48)
		r_prob	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.19 (0.19, 0.19)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.021 (0.016, 0.029)	0.024 (0.015, 0.043)			0.024 (0.014, 0.053)	0.024 (0.013, 0.054)
	Taxel_therapies	count	151	151			151	151
		time	28 (18, 53)	28 (18, 53)			28 (18, 53)	28 (18, 53)
		n	51 (23, 121)	17 (7, 37)			11 (4, 26)	11 (4, 27)
		post_p	0.33 (0.13, 0.48)	0.37 (0.17, 0.48)			0.36 (0.2, 0.47)	0.36 (0.15, 0.47)
		r_prob	0.25 (0.25, 0.25)	0.38 (0.38, 0.38)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.021 (0.017, 0.028)	0.023 (0.015, 0.039)			0.026 (0.015, 0.047)	0.025 (0.016, 0.055)
	Niraparib	count	181	181			181	181
		time	29 (16, 47)	29 (16, 47)			29 (16, 47)	29 (16, 47)
		n	36 (16, 116)	12 (5, 36)			15 (8, 36)	17 (9, 34)
		post_p	0.34 (0.1, 0.47)	0.35 (0.16, 0.47)			0.35 (0.12, 0.48)	0.36 (0.14, 0.48)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate	0.021 (0.015, 0.033)	0.024 (0.016, 0.046)			0.024 (0.015, 0.037)	0.024 (0.017, 0.036)
TP53+	Hormone_therapies	count			11	11			11	11
		time			23 (17, 34)	23 (17, 34)			23 (17, 34)	23 (17, 34)
		n			38 (25, 50)	12 (8, 29)			11 (4, 15)	5 (2, 10)
		post_p			0.4 (0.14, 0.48)	0.42 (0.2, 0.49)			0.37 (0.19, 0.48)	0.42 (0.33, 0.46)
		r_prob			0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.023 (0.018, 0.034)	0.029 (0.019, 0.042)			0.026 (0.017, 0.062)	0.036 (0.015, 0.052)
	Taxel_therapies	count			371	371			371	371
		time			30 (18, 48)	30 (18, 48)			30 (18, 48)	30 (18, 48)
		n			23 (13, 37)	18 (11, 30)			7 (3, 13)	7 (3, 15)
		post_p			0.07 (0, 0.38)	0.11 (0.01, 0.42)			0.31 (0.08, 0.47)	0.29 (0.06, 0.46)
		r_prob			0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.048 (0.032, 0.071)	0.045 (0.03, 0.073)			0.047 (0.023, 0.101)	0.047 (0.024, 0.114)
	Niraparib	count			6	6			6	6
		time			26 (19, 48)	26 (19, 48)			26 (19, 48)	26 (19, 48)
		n			14 (6, 44)	22 (11, 48)			17 (10, 19)	11 (7, 22)
		post_p			0.11 (0.07, 0.4)	0.34 (0.23, 0.47)			0.32 (0.09, 0.45)	0.42 (0.2, 0.46)
		r_prob			0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate			0.046 (0.029, 0.091)	0.027 (0.022, 0.037)			0.029 (0.026, 0.054)	0.037 (0.024, 0.056)
DRD+	Hormone_therapies	count					26	26	26	26
		time					40 (29, 56)	40 (29, 56)	40 (29, 56)	40 (29, 56)
		n					21 (8, 38)	18 (7, 39)	13 (5, 29)	14 (5, 24)
		post_p					0.4 (0.15, 0.47)	0.3 (0.11, 0.44)	0.39 (0.18, 0.48)	0.37 (0.18, 0.48)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.022 (0.015, 0.041)	0.027 (0.017, 0.036)	0.033 (0.02, 0.043)	0.031 (0.022, 0.054)
	Taxel_therapies	count					119	119	119	119
		time					43 (32, 56)	43 (32, 56)	43 (32, 56)	43 (32, 56)
		n					23 (12, 43)	22 (9, 38)	7 (3, 14)	7 (3, 15)
		post_p					0.37 (0.13, 0.48)	0.39 (0.16, 0.48)	0.21 (0.04, 0.4)	0.21 (0.03, 0.4)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.022 (0.015, 0.035)	0.022 (0.016, 0.031)	0.052 (0.03, 0.1)	0.048 (0.034, 0.121)
	Niraparib	count					44	44	44	44
		time					28 (19, 48)	28 (19, 48)	28 (19, 48)	28 (19, 48)
		n					16 (9, 36)	16 (12, 31)	15 (10, 26)	15 (9, 24)
		post_p					0.35 (0.05, 0.47)	0.33 (0.17, 0.46)	0.41 (0.29, 0.48)	0.41 (0.21, 0.5)
		r_prob					0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)	0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate					0.024 (0.015, 0.038)	0.023 (0.017, 0.033)	0.027 (0.018, 0.035)	0.025 (0.016, 0.045)
TEfus+	Hormone_therapies	count		30		30		30		30
		time		33 (23, 48)		33 (23, 48)		33 (23, 48)		33 (23, 48)
		n		16 (5, 35)		32 (17, 55)		10 (4, 25)		10 (6, 20)
		post_p		0.35 (0.12, 0.48)		0.39 (0.17, 0.46)		0.32 (0.13, 0.46)		0.43 (0.22, 0.48)
		r_prob		0.19 (0.19, 0.19)		0.12 (0.12, 0.12)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.024 (0.018, 0.044)		0.027 (0.021, 0.033)		0.025 (0.016, 0.044)		0.034 (0.015, 0.054)
	Taxel_therapies	count		209		209		209		209
		time		34 (21, 54)		34 (21, 54)		34 (21, 54)		34 (21, 54)
		n		21 (11, 40)		18 (11, 29)		16 (5, 31)		7 (3, 14)
		post_p		0.4 (0.16, 0.48)		0.08 (0, 0.37)		0.4 (0.16, 0.48)		0.25 (0.06, 0.44)
		r_prob		0.38 (0.38, 0.38)		0.41 (0.41, 0.41)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.022 (0.015, 0.033)		0.049 (0.033, 0.074)		0.023 (0.014, 0.039)		0.047 (0.029, 0.124)
	Niraparib	count		24		24		24		24
		time		32 (19, 48)		32 (19, 48)		32 (19, 48)		32 (19, 48)
		n		12 (4, 24)		23 (9, 53)		15 (10, 30)		18 (8, 32)
		post_p		0.26 (0.11, 0.43)		0.43 (0.34, 0.48)		0.32 (0.13, 0.44)		0.43 (0.24, 0.48)
		r_prob		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.5 (0.5, 0.5)		0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
		rate		0.032 (0.02, 0.048)		0.028 (0.02, 0.038)		0.027 (0.019, 0.035)		0.03 (0.019, 0.043)